As I sit here watching another nail-biting Notre Dame basketball game, I can't help but wonder—will this be the season the Fighting Irish finally break through and make the NCAA Tournament? Having followed this program for over a decade, I've seen both the glorious moments and heartbreaking near-misses. This year feels different though, and I'm not just saying that because I'm an eternal optimist when it comes to Irish basketball.
The recent victory against Wake Forest perfectly illustrates why this team might just have what it takes. After the game, I was struck by what one player said about the experience: "Pero, it's a good win for us kasi it's not just a positive thing to win, nakakuha din kami ng ganitong klaseng experience as early as now." That mix of Tagalog and English really stuck with me—it shows this team's unique character and international flavor that could be their secret weapon. They're not just winning games; they're building something special through these shared experiences. When I look at their current 18-9 record with 8 conference wins, compared to last season's disappointing 15-15 finish, the improvement is undeniable.
What really excites me about this squad is their resilience. Remember that brutal stretch in January where they lost four straight? Many teams would have collapsed, but Notre Dame bounced back with three consecutive wins, including that impressive overtime victory against Syracuse. I've noticed Coach Shrewsberry has been experimenting with different lineups, giving younger players meaningful minutes that are paying off now. Freshman guard Markus Burton has been phenomenal, averaging 17.2 points per game—numbers we haven't seen from a first-year player in South Bend since Jerian Grant back in 2011.
The ACC conference strength this season works both for and against them. On one hand, the conference isn't as dominant as in previous years, which means fewer quality win opportunities. But on the flip side, it creates more parity and gives Notre Dame a legitimate shot in every game. Their remaining schedule includes crucial matchups against Duke and Virginia—win just one of those, and their tournament resume suddenly looks much stronger. I've been analyzing bracketology projections all season, and most experts currently have them among the "last four in" or "first four out," which means every game from here on out is essentially a play-in game.
Their offensive efficiency has improved dramatically from last season, jumping from 187th nationally to 94th this year according to KenPom metrics. The defense remains solid, ranking 45th in adjusted defensive efficiency. What's impressed me most is their ability to close out close games—they're 6-2 in games decided by five points or fewer, compared to 3-7 last season. That clutch factor could be the difference between watching the tournament from home and dancing in March.
Looking at their tournament history, Notre Dame has made 37 NCAA Tournament appearances but hasn't reached the Sweet Sixteen since 2016. This team has the potential to break that streak if they can get in. The way they share the ball—averaging 14.8 assists per game, top five in the ACC—reminds me of those great Mike Brey teams that always seemed to peak at the right time.
As we approach conference tournament time, I'm cautiously optimistic. The pieces are there—experienced leadership from graduate student Nate Laszewski, emerging young talent, and a coaching staff that's proven it can develop players. Their NET ranking of 58 needs to improve, but with several quad-one opportunities remaining, the path is clear. Personally, I believe they need to win at least three of their final five regular season games to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.
The reality is that making the NCAA Tournament would mean everything for this program's trajectory. Recruiting would get a boost, fan engagement would skyrocket, and it would validate the rebuilding process that began when Shrewsberry took over. I've seen how transformative a tournament appearance can be for a program like Notre Dame—it creates momentum that carries into future seasons.
So will they make it? My heart says yes, but my head says it's going to be incredibly close. They control their own destiny, which is all you can ask for in late February. The way they've grown through experiences, just like that player mentioned after the Wake Forest game, gives me confidence they have the mental toughness required for this final push. Whatever happens, this has been one of the most enjoyable Notre Dame basketball seasons I've watched in years, and that in itself is a victory of sorts.